13F filings due Feb 14 may reveal who drove the Oct. 10 crypto crash
Form 13F disclosures for Q4 2025 are expected around Valentine’s Day (statutory deadline rolls to Feb 17), and crypto observers hope they will shed light on the October 10, 2025 liquidation event. The Oct. 10 episode saw roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in ~24 hours and steep declines in BTC and many altcoins. 13F filings — mandatory quarterly reports from institutional managers with >$100M US equity AUM that disclose long stock/ETF positions — could reveal large, unexplained reductions in spot-BTC ETF or related equity holdings, or anomalous filings from non-US (notably Hong Kong/Asia-based) institutions. Industry voices are divided: OKX’s CEO suggested exchange-level risk handling played a role, while Wintermute’s CEO and others argue the evidence points to an external large tradfi player with limited crypto counterparties. Analysts like Franklin Bi and X users speculate a major non-crypto, Asia-based institution could have been liquidated, explaining why on-chain intelligence (CT) didn’t clearly identify a culprit. Traders are cautioned that 13F filings disclose only long equity/ETF holdings (not short positions or derivatives) and arrive with delay, so they may narrow suspects but not definitively explain the crash. Key takeaways for traders: watch Feb 14–17 13F releases for sharp drops in ETF/equity positions tied to BTC, consider potential forced liquidations by large institutional non-crypto actors, and remain aware that filings provide delayed, partial visibility into TradFi exposure to crypto.
Neutral
The expected 13F filings are primarily an informational event that could increase transparency about which institutional players held large equity/ETF positions tied to BTC around Q4 2025. Their release may reveal sharp reductions in ETF/equity holdings that allow traders to better infer who suffered losses during the Oct. 10 liquidation. However, 13Fs only disclose long stock/ETF positions for managers with >$100M US equity AUM, do not show derivatives, short positions, OTC trades or exact timestamps of liquidations, and arrive with a multi-week delay. Because of these limitations, the filings are unlikely to trigger a decisive market trend by themselves; instead they may produce short-term volatility as traders parse any notable disclosures (e.g., sudden disappearance of large ETF holdings). If filings point to a large TradFi player being forced to liquidate, that could temporarily increase risk aversion and selling pressure in crypto. Conversely, confirmation that no major institutional ETF holder wiped out could be taken as a relief, tightening spreads and stabilising prices. Historical parallels: past delayed disclosures (e.g., revelations after FTX, Three Arrows Capital) produced waves of re-pricing and counterparty risk reassessment but didn’t on their own determine long-term direction; market reaction depended on the scale and counterparty connectivity revealed. Practical implications: expect short-term news-driven volatility around Feb 14–17 as traders and funds react to any revelations; use risk controls and monitor ETF flows, lending metrics and derivatives basis for immediate signals; for the longer term, filings may improve understanding of TradFi exposure but won’t fully eliminate opacity around derivatives and OTC positions.