Crypto Derivatives Surge to ~$86T in 2025 as Trading Concentrates on Few Exchanges and Institutions Rise
Crypto derivatives volume jumped to roughly $85.7–86 trillion in 2025, averaging about $264 billion per day, according to CoinGlass. Binance led with about $25 trillion (~29% market share), while OKX, Bybit and Bitget each handled roughly $8–10 trillion; the top four accounted for ~62% of global derivatives activity. Institutional participation expanded materially: US spot Bitcoin ETFs, options desks and compliant futures drove more hedging and basis trades, and the CME often surpassed Binance in BTC futures open interest. Open interest started the year near $87 billion, peaked at a record $236 billion on Oct. 7, then fell after an early-Q4 reset that erased over $70 billion in positions; year-end open interest closed around $145 billion (up ~17% from the start). Forced liquidations for 2025 totaled about $150 billion, including a concentrated deleveraging event on Oct. 10–11 that wiped out more than $19 billion in two days — highlighting sensitivity to macro shocks and deep leverage chains. Bitcoin traded near $90k during reporting (≈$89,950); US-listed spot ETFs saw net outflows late in the year and a record options expiry on Dec. 26 likely compressed price moves. Key takeaways for traders: derivatives remain the primary price-discovery venue; market liquidity and risk dynamics are shifting toward institution-led hedging and basis trades; centralisation of volume on a few exchanges increases systemic and counterparty concentration risk; and macro or regulatory shocks can trigger cascading liquidations across interconnected leverage positions.
Neutral
The report contains mixed signals for Bitcoin price direction. Bullish factors include a substantial rise in open interest year-over-year, increased institutional participation (spot ETFs, CME futures, options desks) and higher overall derivatives volume — all of which can support deeper, more stable liquidity and sustained demand. Bearish factors include very large forced liquidations (~$150B) and concentrated deleveraging events (Oct. 10–11) that demonstrate how macro or regulatory shocks can rapidly cascade through leveraged positions and amplify downside volatility. Exchange concentration (top four handling ~62% of volume) raises counterparty and systemic risk that can transiently suppress prices during stress. Net flows into US spot ETFs were reported as outflows late in the year, a short-term headwind. Taken together, these offsetting forces make an immediate directional bias unclear: the structural institutionalisation is constructive long term for market depth, but elevated leverage and concentration increase short-term tail-risk. Thus the near-term price impact is best classified as neutral.