85% of 2025 token launches trade below TGE — median FDV down 71%
Memento Research tracked 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) in 2025 and found 84.7% (100/118) now trade below their launch valuations. The median token’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) is down 71% and market cap down 67% since launch. High-profile losses include Syndicate (SYND) -93.6%, Animecoin (ANIME) -93.6%, Berachain (BERA) -93.2%, Bio Protocol (BIO) -93.1%, Xterio (XTER) -92.9% and Lit Protocol (LITKEY) -92.1%. Venture-backed projects also suffered steep drawdowns (e.g., Mira -91.1%, Venice Token -90.8%, Plasma -89.9%). Memento highlights several drivers: heavy pre-TGE venture allocations and large VC rounds (billions raised in 2025) that left retail buying at inflated, fully diluted valuations; oversupply of new tokens and fragmented liquidity; brief post-launch volume spikes followed by 50–70% falls within weeks; market-wide correction events (notably the Oct 10–11 crash) and increased regulatory caution. The data covers both H1 and H2 2025. For traders the takeaway is clear: buying at TGE no longer reliably yields upside for retail investors. Recommended tactics include strict position sizing, thorough due diligence on vesting schedules and liquidity, prioritising established projects, and waiting for sustained on-chain liquidity and secondary-market depth before entering new listings.
Bearish
The report signals widespread post-TGE declines: 85% of 2025 launches trade below opening valuations with a median FDV drop of 71%. That pattern reduces immediate buying demand at TGEs and increases selling pressure as venture allocations unlock and early holders take profits or cut losses. Short-term impact: heightened volatility and steep drawdowns for newly listed tokens as initial volume spikes fade and liquidity fragments. Traders who buy at listing risk rapid mark-to-market losses. Medium- to long-term impact: the market may see a cooling of retail appetite for TGEs, fewer immediate retail-driven pumps, and greater emphasis on projects with proven fundamentals, transparent vesting and sustained secondary-market liquidity. Overall price bias for newly launched tokens is negative until demonstrable on-chain activity and deeper markets materialise.