85% of 2025 token launches dey trade below TGE — median FDV don drop 71%
Memento Research binik watch 118 Token Generation Events (TGE) for 2025, dem find say 84.7% (100/118) now dey trade under dia launch valuation. Di median token fully diluted valuation (FDV) don fall 71% and market cap don drop 67% since launch. Big losses include Syndicate (SYND) -93.6%, Animecoin (ANIME) -93.6%, Berachain (BERA) -93.2%, Bio Protocol (BIO) -93.1%, Xterio (XTER) -92.9% and Lit Protocol (LITKEY) -92.1%. Venture-backed projects too suffer heavy drawdowns (e.g., Mira -91.1%, Venice Token -90.8%, Plasma -89.9%). Memento point out some drivers: heavy pre-TGE venture allocations and big VC rounds (billions raised in 2025) wey make retail people buy at inflated fully diluted valuations; oversupply of new tokens and fragmented liquidity; quick post-launch volume spikes followed by 50–70% falls within weeks; market-wide correction events (especially di Oct 10–11 crash) and more regulatory caution. Di data cover both H1 and H2 2025. For traders di takeaway clear: buying at TGE no longer reliably give upside for retail investors. Recommended tactics include strict position sizing, proper due diligence on vesting schedules and liquidity, prioritize established projects, and wait for sustained on-chain liquidity and secondary-market depth before entering new listings.
Bearish
Di ripot dey show say plenty tokens dey drop after TGE: 85% of 2025 launches dey trade below opening valuations with median FDV drop of 71%. Dis pattern dey reduce immediate buying demand for TGEs and e dey increase selling pressure when venture allocations unlock and early holders dey take profit or cut loss. Short-term impact: higher volatility and steep drawdowns for newly listed tokens as initial volume spikes fade and liquidity scatter. Traders wey buy at listing risk quick mark-to-market losses. Medium- to long-term impact: market fit cool down retail appetite for TGEs, fewer immediate retail-driven pumps, and more focus on projects wey get proven fundamentals, transparent vesting and sustained secondary-market liquidity. Overall price bias for newly launched tokens na negative until clear on-chain activity and deeper markets show up.