21Shares projects Solana at $150–$197 in 2026; bear case $95 amid value-capture doubts
Asset manager 21Shares published its 2026 price scenarios for Solana (SOL), forecasting a base case of $150 (≈+21% from current levels), a bull case of $197 (≈+59%) and a bear case of $95 (≈–23%). The firm highlighted that while Solana leads layer‑1 networks in raw on‑chain activity — processing roughly 2.2 billion transactions weekly, second only to Internet Computer — price appreciation will depend on durable value capture rather than throughput alone. 21Shares noted rising USD payments and institutional experimentation on Solana but expressed skepticism that network performance will automatically translate into SOL token value. Short‑term technicals show SOL trading near $123, with support around $95 and resistance near $131; a break above moving averages could keep SOL rangebound between $117–$147. The report underscores that scaling metrics are strong, but economic value capture remains the key determinant for traders and investors.
Neutral
21Shares’ report is primarily analytical rather than event-driven, offering scenario-based price targets rather than novel catalysts. The outlook is neutral because it balances positive on‑chain metrics (Solana’s high transaction volume and rising institutional activity) against clear caveats about value capture: strong usage does not guarantee token appreciation. For traders, this implies limited immediate directional bias. Short term: expect rangebound trading and volatility around the technical levels cited (support ≈$95, resistance ≈$131); news-driven spikes or selloffs could occur but are not guaranteed. Long term: if Solana converts activity into sustainable revenue or token‑binding economic models (e.g., increased burn, staking demand, or developer monetization), the bullish scenarios become more likely; failure to capture value would validate the bear case. Historical parallels: networks like BNB Chain and Tron showed heavy activity but only gradual price response until clear value‑capture mechanisms or revenue flows emerged. Traders should watch on‑chain revenue metrics, institutional flows, and protocol-level economic changes as confirmation signals before adopting strongly bullish positions.