21Shares projects XRP at $2.45 by end-2026, cites ETF inflows and adoption
21Shares, a crypto exchange-traded product issuer, forecasts XRP trading around $2.45 by the end of 2026 in its base case. The firm attributes the outlook to regulatory clarity after the August 2025 resolution of the SEC case, strong and sustained demand from US XRP spot ETFs (which gathered over $1.3 billion in their first month and posted a record streak of inflows), and growing use of the XRP Ledger for stablecoins, tokenized assets and DeFi. 21Shares also notes RLUSD (XRP’s native stablecoin) expansion and rising total value locked on the ledger from a low base. Its scenario analysis sets a bull case at $2.69—driven by faster institutional adoption and supply constraints—and a bear case at $1.60 if demand weakens or adoption stalls. With litigation uncertainty resolved, 21Shares says XRP has entered market-driven price discovery, making continued capital inflows and adoption critical to sustaining higher valuations.
Bullish
The report is bullish because it links a clear regulatory outcome and sizeable ETF inflows to a structural demand shift for XRP. The August 2025 settlement removed a major legal overhang, reopening US institutional channels—historically a strong catalyst for price appreciation when comparable assets gained ETF access (e.g., BTC and spot-BTC ETF flows in 2021–2023). The $1.3B+ initial ETF asset inflow and sustained consecutive inflows suggest persistent capital demand rather than short-lived speculation, supporting higher price floors. Additional on-chain adoption (RLUSD stablecoin growth, rising TVL on the XRP Ledger) provides fundamental use-case support that can sustain medium- to long-term valuation. Short-term volatility remains likely as markets price in adoption and ETF performance; price could overshoot on momentum or retract if inflows slow. Scenario ranges ($1.60 bear, $2.45 base, $2.69 bull) give traders clear risk/reward brackets: short-term trading may favor momentum and event-driven plays around ETF flows and adoption announcements, while longer-term positions should monitor institutional inflows, on-chain metrics (TVL, RLUSD issuance) and liquidity/supply dynamics. Historical parallels: BTC price appreciation following ETF approvals and legal clarity show how regulated product access and institutional demand can produce sustained bullish trends, though amplified volatility is common during the transition.