401(k) Crypto Retirement Plans Could Drive Bitcoin to $200K by 2025

Published: 2025-08-19 12:12:21 |

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 7 enabling crypto in 401(k) retirement plans. André Dragosch, head of European research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, said this move could unlock $122 billion in new capital into crypto retirement plans, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $200,000 by end of 2025. He based this on a conservative 1% allocation of the $12.2 trillion U.S. 401(k) market. A Bitwise survey shows advisers may actually recommend 2.5–3% Bitcoin allocations, suggesting larger inflows. The first Bitcoin ETF investments within these retirement plans could start this fall, coinciding with anticipated Fed rate cuts. Markets price an 83% probability of a 25 bp rate cut by Sept. 17, which could further boost Bitcoin’s ETF-driven demand. Major retirement plan providers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have strong incentives to include spot Bitcoin ETFs. The U.S. SEC is collaborating with the administration to set proper guardrails for private equity and crypto assets in retirement plans. This landmark integration of digital assets into 401(k) plans may have a more profound impact on Bitcoin adoption than the January 2024 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval. By making Bitcoin ETF exposure widely accessible, crypto retirement plans could drive significant long-term demand and market stability.

Bullish

Integrating crypto into 401(k) plans creates a fresh and sizable demand source for Bitcoin. Even a conservative 1% allocation represents $122 billion in potential inflows, with many advisers favoring 2.5–3%, indicating even greater capital movement. The timing aligns with anticipated Fed rate cuts and broad access to spot Bitcoin ETFs by major plan providers, heightening bullish sentiment. Historically, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in January 2024 led to significant price rallies, suggesting similar, if not stronger, long-term impacts from retirement plan adoption. Traders may see both an immediate price surge and reinforced market stability over the coming years.