90% Chance of 25bps Fed Rate Cut at Sep 2025 FOMC Meeting
Investors now assign a 90% probability to a 25bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting, with just a 10% chance of rates remaining unchanged. The anticipated interest rate cut could lower borrowing costs and boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Crypto traders should monitor shifts in the U.S. monetary policy outlook, as a Fed rate cut often leads to US dollar weakening and higher cryptocurrency demand. The FOMC meeting forecast highlights market sentiment toward looser monetary policy in late 2025.
Bullish
An anticipated Fed rate cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting is generally bullish for cryptocurrencies. Historical Fed easing cycles have weakened the US dollar and increased liquidity, driving capital flows into risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins. For example, post-rate cuts in early 2020 saw crypto markets rally strongly. Lower borrowing costs can enhance trader leverage and market risk appetite. In the short term, volatility may spike as markets adjust to Fed projections. Over the longer term, reduced interest rates could underpin sustained crypto demand and higher valuations.