ADA Price Slips After Van Rossem Hard Fork: Key Levels for $0.17 and $0.19
Cardano (ADA) is trading near $0.16 after the van Rossem hard fork activated on July 18, taking the network to Protocol Version 11. Despite protocol upgrades to Plutus and changes to the smart-contract cost model, the market has not seen a sustained ADA rally.
On the technical side, ADA remains in a broader bearish structure and is still below the middle Bollinger Band around $0.1688. The upper band sits near $0.1887, with the next major resistance zone at $0.19. To strengthen the short-term setup, traders want a daily move back above $0.17 and ultimately a break toward $0.19. If momentum weakens further, support could slip toward $0.15 and the lower Bollinger Band near $0.1489.
Derivatives are mixed. Funding rates have turned slightly positive (about 0.0061%), which can support longs, but the ADA long-to-short ratio remains around 0.90, meaning shorts still outnumber longs and traders remain cautious. Liquidity has clustered near $0.16 and $0.17, making these levels crucial for the next directional move.
Broader context matters: ADA has stayed flat over the past month after a sharp drop from prior 2025 highs, so the hard fork is acting more as a technical catalyst than an immediate demand driver.
Neutral
The van Rossem hard fork is a genuine technical upgrade for Cardano, but the article shows it has not translated into immediate upside for ADA. Short-term momentum remains weak: ADA is still under the Bollinger middle band (~$0.1688) and the key resistance zone at $0.19. In similar past “upgrade-and-no-rally” patterns, protocol catalysts often fail to drive price without broader market risk-on conditions.
At the same time, the derivatives picture is not purely bearish. Funding rates turned slightly positive, suggesting some improvement in long positioning, and $0.16–$0.17 is acting as a liquidity-supported support area. However, the long-to-short ratio below 1 (~0.90) indicates persistent caution and dominant shorts, which can cap rallies.
Net effect: neutral. Short term, price is likely to remain range-bound unless ADA can reclaim and hold above $0.17 and then break toward $0.19 (a shift that would also require RSI to move above 50). Long term, the hard fork can help Cardano’s ecosystem and future scaling narrative (Dijkstra era / Ouroboros Leios groundwork), but traders will still wait for demand and trend confirmation before pricing it aggressively.