Alphabet beats Q4 estimates but stocks slip on massive AI capex plans
Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 results and record full-year revenue above $400 billion, with Q4 revenue up 18% YoY to nearly $114B, net income up 30% to $34.5B and EPS $2.82 — all beating forecasts. Google Cloud reached a roughly $70B annual run rate as Q4 cloud revenue rose ~48% YoY to about $18B. YouTube revenue (ads + subscriptions) topped $60B for the year. The company highlighted AI momentum: Gemini users grew past 750 million after Gemini 3 launched, and the Gemini app and AI products are driving higher engagement and paid subscriptions. Management raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $175–$185B — roughly double 2025’s ~$91–$93B — to expand AI models and data center capacity. Shares initially jumped after the results but then fell ~1.2% as investors reacted to the aggressive AI capex outlook. For crypto traders: Alphabet’s heavy AI investment and cloud growth can increase demand for GPU/TPU infrastructure and cloud services used by AI and crypto projects, potentially lifting cloud-related infrastructure providers and on-chain compute plays. However, the elevated capex raises near-term earnings risk and market volatility; traders should watch vendor partnerships (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta), cloud spend trends, and any announcements tying Google Cloud to crypto mining or node hosting services. Key SEO keywords: Alphabet earnings, Google Cloud growth, AI investment, Gemini AI, capital expenditures.
Neutral
Short-term market impact is mixed: the beat in revenue, EPS and the strong Google Cloud growth are bullish signals that validate Alphabet’s AI-driven revenue path and can indirectly benefit crypto infrastructure and cloud-related tokens. However, the company’s plan to more than double 2026 capex to $175–185B raises concerns about margin pressure, cash allocation risks and near-term stock volatility — factors that can translate into risk-off moves in correlated crypto sectors. For traders, this suggests limited direct upside for mainstream cryptocurrencies from the earnings beat alone; potential gains are likelier for niche infrastructure providers, GPU/TPU suppliers, or cloud-related projects. In the short term (days-weeks), expect increased volatility around earnings reaction and guidance updates; in the medium-to-long term (months-years), sustained cloud and AI demand could support secular growth for infrastructure tokens and services tied to on-chain compute or AI workloads, provided Alphabet’s capex produces efficient returns. Monitor partnerships (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta), cloud contract rollouts, and any product integrations that directly link Google Cloud to crypto operations — these will determine whether the longer-term impact becomes bullish for specific crypto assets.