Altcoin Season Delayed Until SEC Approves Spot Altcoin ETFs
A new Bitfinex market report warns that a sustained altcoin season is unlikely until the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlights spot altcoin ETFs. Dozens of proposals tracking tokens such as SOL, XRP, HBAR and LTC remain under SEC review, with most decisions now deferred to October. While liquidity flows into altcoins have begun, analysts say major capital rotations—and a true market rally—hinge on the launch of these altcoin ETFs. Industry sentiment for approval remains high: SOL, XRP and LTC ETFs carry roughly 95% odds, ADA, DOT, AVAX and HBAR about 90%, while SUI and TRX stand at 60% and 50%, respectively. The shift to a more constructive stance under SEC Chair Paul Atkins, compared with Gary Gensler’s stricter approach, along with positive amendments from issuers, further boosts bullish expectations for altcoin ETF success. However, until formal SEC approval, traders should temper expectations for a broad-based altcoin rally.
Neutral
The report highlights that altcoin season will remain on hold until spot altcoin ETFs receive SEC approval. In the short term, this stalls major capital inflows and limits upward price momentum across altcoins, leading to sideways trading. However, the high approval odds for key proposals and a more constructive SEC stance under Chair Atkins keep long-term bullish fundamentals intact. Similar to the period before Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs launched in January 2024, traders can expect muted activity until regulatory clarity arrives, followed by potential inflows. Overall, the impact is neutral: delays temper rally expectations but do not undermine the eventual launch’s bullish potential.