Altcoin Season at risk as market forms double-top; altcap set to test $739B
Altcoin Season Index fell to 15 as Bitcoin dominance rose and most altcoins remained in the red. Over the past 90 days only a few tokens outperformed — Pippin (+2,300%), plus privacy coins ZEC, DASH, XMR and Merlin Chain — while top laggards lost 60%+. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits near 25 and open interest has declined after a massive October deleveraging that wiped out about $20B from 1.6M traders. Total market capitalization of altcoins (ex-BTC/ETH) dropped from $1.19T in October to ~$825B and formed a double-top around $1.16T with a neckline at $658B. Price has slipped below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and both 50- and 200-day EMAs, while RSI and MACD trend down. Analysts say the most likely path is further downside toward the 50% retracement near $739B; a break below could accelerate losses toward the $658B neckline. Primary keywords: altcoin season, altcoin market cap, double-top, Bitcoin dominance, deleveraging.
Bearish
The technical picture and market context point to a bearish outlook for altcoins. Key signals: (1) Altcoin Season Index at 15 and broad underperformance vs BTC; (2) formation of a double-top in altcoin market cap with a clear neckline (~$658B) — a classical reversal pattern that increases the probability of a deeper decline if the neckline is tested or broken; (3) market cap below 38.2% Fibonacci level and both 50- and 200-day EMAs, indicating longer-term trend weakness; (4) momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) declining; (5) macro market behavior — heightened Bitcoin dominance and reduced leverage after a large October wipeout — reduces risk appetite for higher-beta altcoins. Historically, when BTC declines and leverage is removed (e.g., prior deleveraging events in 2018 and 2022), altcoins suffer larger drawdowns and take longer to recover. Short-term implication: higher volatility and likely extensions of downside toward $739B (50% retracement) and potentially $658B if sellers persist — traders should reduce long-biased exposure, tighten stops, or consider hedges. Long-term implication: recovery will likely require renewed risk-on flows, sustained BTC stability or breakout, and return of leverage/liquidity — without those, altcoin market cap could consolidate at lower levels for weeks to months.