Analyst Warns Altseason Hasn’t Started as Bitcoin Outpaces Altcoins
On-chain analyst Darkfost argues that the much-anticipated altseason—when mid‐ and small-cap altcoins outperform Bitcoin—has yet to begin. Despite recent rallies in Ethereum (ETH) reclaiming the $4,000 level and XRP surging past $3, Bitcoin’s market cap momentum still outpaces both the top 20 large-cap altcoins and the broader altcoin market. The analyst’s assessment is based on the gap between 365-day and 30-day moving averages of market capitalization, which shows Bitcoin holding stronger growth momentum. By contrast, altcoins are lagging, with their collective market cap at $1.55 trillion, up just 12% over the past week. True altseason momentum was last seen in Q1 2024, suggesting traders may need to wait for capital rotation away from Bitcoin before an altcoin rally unfolds.
Neutral
The report underscores Bitcoin’s sustained market cap momentum while altcoins continue to lag, suggesting limited immediate upside for altcoin traders. Historically, a clear altseason only materialized after a significant rotation of capital from Bitcoin, as seen in Q1 2024. In the short term, traders are likely to remain cautious, awaiting clear signs of momentum shift. Over the longer term, the eventual rotation could spark an altcoin rally, but until the 30-day moving average of altcoin market caps outpaces the 365-day average, market sentiment is expected to stay muted.