Analyst Turns Bearish on Bitcoin, Sees $100k Relief Rally Followed by Correction
Cryptocurrency analyst Colin Talks Crypto updated his 12‑month outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), shifting to a more bearish base case. He assigns only a 20% probability to Bitcoin rallying straight to a new all‑time high from current levels. Instead, Colin expects a more likely path where BTC first stages a relief rally into the $100,000–$115,000 range and then undergoes a corrective phase. He outlined two possible correction patterns: (1) a shorter, milder correction lasting 6–8 months followed by a strong rebound — potentially aided by improved ISM economic data — or (2) a classic bear‑market cycle extending around 12 months. Colin warned traders against overly optimistic expectations that price will immediately reach new highs. (Not investment advice.)
Bearish
Colin Talks Crypto’s revised base case is bearish because it lowers the probability of an uninterrupted surge to new all‑time highs and instead anticipates a relief rally followed by a significant correction or extended bear cycle. For traders, this implies a higher likelihood of volatile price action: short‑term opportunities during a $100k–$115k relief bounce, but elevated risk of drawdown thereafter. The two correction scenarios produce different trading strategies — a 6–8 month mild correction favors buying dips and swing trades anticipating a rebound, while a 12‑month bear cycle suggests risk reduction, tightening stops, or reducing leverage. Historical parallels include post‑halving relief rallies that subsequently corrected (e.g., 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 cycles), where initial exuberance led to sizable retracements. Market indicators to watch: whale accumulation/dispersion data, macroeconomic signals (ISM, rate guidance), liquidity and funding rates on derivatives. Overall, the analyst’s message should temper bullish positioning and encourage risk management for both short‑term traders and longer‑term holders.