Experts Warn Against Betting on a Bitcoin Year-End Peak
Analysts question the likelihood of a Bitcoin year-end peak based solely on past halvings. PlanC argues that relying on just three historical cycles is statistically weak. New market forces—such as Bitcoin treasury companies and U.S. spot ETFs—are reshaping the landscape. Historically, Q4 has delivered an average 85.42% return, but that record may not repeat. Some experts project Bitcoin reaching $140,000–$150,000 this year without a bear market, while others foresee a bull run extending into 2026 or even a $250,000 peak by December. Divergent price predictions highlight market uncertainty and the risks of overreliance on historical patterns.
Neutral
The article highlights conflicting Bitcoin year-end peak forecasts and warns against overreliance on three past halving events. While some project prices up to $250K, others cite statistical fallacies and new market drivers like treasury firms and spot ETFs. This divergence creates uncertainty rather than a clear bullish or bearish signal. Traders may remain cautious, weighing historical returns against evolving market structures. Similar debates occurred post-2016 and 2020 halvings, leading to mixed short-term moves and gradual long-term growth.