Anthropic’s surge puts OpenAI’s $852B valuation under scrutiny

Investors are rethinking the AI investment stack after Anthropic’s rapid growth raised doubts about OpenAI’s $852B valuation. Financial Times reports some OpenAI backers are losing confidence as Anthropic’s annualized revenue jumped from $9B (end of 2025) to $30B by March 2026—an estimated 233% surge in a single quarter, driven largely by demand for Anthropic’s coding tools. The valuation gap is now central to the debate. One investor described the math behind OpenAI’s latest round: sustaining OpenAI’s premium would require an eventual IPO valuation above $1.2T, making Anthropic’s roughly $380B valuation look more “reasonable.” Secondary market signals reportedly reinforce this shift: Anthropic shares trade with strong institutional demand, while OpenAI shares reportedly trade at a discount. Key figures cited include Roy Luo of Iconiq Capital, which backed Anthropic with over $1B while holding a smaller OpenAI stake. The article also notes OpenAI’s massive fundraising—$122B—won’t fully remove skepticism unless execution matches the premium implied by OpenAI valuation. Both firms are pursuing different GTM strategies: Anthropic leans on developer-focused coding assistance, while OpenAI emphasizes enterprise platforms and ecosystem development. Traders should treat this as a tech-sector sentiment indicator: expect short-term volatility in risk appetite tied to AI megacap expectations, but long-term impact depends on whether enterprise adoption and monetization validate current private-market multiples.