Apollo warns of 2026 market turmoil — Bitcoin technicals and gold rally signal downside risk
Apollo Global Management, a $908 billion private equity and credit firm, is positioning for market turbulence in 2026 by raising cash, cutting leverage and selling riskier assets, according to the Financial Times. CEO Marc Rowan warned that asset prices are high, long-term interest rates are unlikely to fall sharply, and geopolitical risks are elevated. Concurrently, safe-haven assets have surged: gold hit a record $4,438 and silver reached $68.50, while the Swiss franc strengthened about 16% year-to-date and the 30-year US bond yield climbed to 4.84% despite recent Fed rate cuts.
Technicals on Bitcoin also point to potential downside. Weekly charts show BTC formed a large rising wedge and recently moved below its lower boundary; a bearish pennant is forming, with an initial downside target near the April low around $74,120. Bitcoin has fallen from an October high near $126,200 to roughly $89,300. The combination of institutional de-risking, rising safe-haven flows (gold, CHF, long-term yields) and bearish Bitcoin patterns suggests elevated downside risk for crypto in early 2026.
Key points for traders: Apollo’s shift to cash signals institutional risk aversion; gold and the Swiss franc gains indicate flight-to-safety flows; bond yields and macro rates remain a risk factor; Bitcoin technical patterns signal probable further declines with a near-term support target ~ $74k. Traders should consider tighter risk management, watch institutional flows and macro indicators, and monitor Bitcoin price action around the $74k support and wedge/pennant levels.
Bearish
The news combines credible institutional positioning (Apollo’s $908bn firm moving to cash and reducing leverage) with clear macro signals of risk aversion (record gold, strong Swiss franc, rising 30-year yields). Historically, large institutional de-risking and major safe-haven rallies precede risk-asset drawdowns. On-chain and price technicals for Bitcoin — a broken rising wedge and a forming bearish pennant — provide a near-term technical case for further declines toward the $74k area. Short-term impact: increased volatility and downside pressure as institutional flows and trader risk-off behavior accelerate; traders may see fast drawdowns and liquidity stress around leverage points. Medium/long-term: if macro risks materialize (rates stay elevated or geopolitical shocks occur), capital could remain out of risk assets longer, delaying a sustained crypto recovery. Conversely, if macro fears ease or central banks act more dovishly than expected, a relief rally could occur, but current setup and credible institutional signals favor a bearish stance until confirmed trend reversals and improved macro indicators emerge.