Apple to Ship Record 247M iPhones in 2025 Driven by iPhone 17 Demand
IDC projects Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025 — a 6% increase that would surpass its 2021 record of 236 million units. The iPhone 17 series is cited as the primary driver, with particularly strong demand in China where IDC forecasts a 17% year‑over‑year jump in Q4 shipments. The China rebound led IDC to revise its outlook for the country’s smartphone market from a 1% decline to 3% growth for 2025. Counterpoint Research similarly expects Apple to outsell Samsung for the first time in 14 years. Potential headwinds include a reported delay of the base iPhone 18 to 2027, which IDC warns could trigger a 4.2% shipment decline in 2026. Apple’s fiscal results show momentum: management guided December‑quarter revenue growth of 10–12%, implying roughly $138 billion if consensus holds. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached $416 billion, up 6% year‑over‑year, and net income in the reported quarter was $27.46 billion. For traders: stronger iPhone demand and China recovery support Apple’s hardware revenue outlook and broader iOS ecosystem monetization, while the possible iPhone 18 delay creates a near‑term risk to shipment growth and supply‑chain sentiment.
Neutral
The news is broadly neutral for crypto markets. Positive: Apple’s record iPhone shipments and China recovery indicate stronger consumer tech demand and higher liquidity in markets, which can boost risk appetite and indirectly support crypto asset inflows. Apple’s larger active iPhone base also strengthens the long‑term potential for mobile-based crypto use cases (wallets, payments, NFT access) in iOS ecosystems. Negative/limiting: the story is primarily about hardware sales, not crypto-specific activity, so direct demand or regulatory impacts on cryptocurrencies are limited. The reported possible delay to the iPhone 18 introduces near‑term downside risk to supply‑chain stocks and could dent market sentiment if it translates into lower tech spending forecasts in 2026. Historical parallels: major hardware-cycle upgrades (e.g., iPhone 12/13 launches) have coincided with increased retail investor risk-taking and periodic inflows into crypto, but they did not produce sustained crypto price trends by themselves. For traders: expect mild, short‑lived risk-on moves in crypto if Apple beats expectations and broader markets rally; watch for negative spillover if the iPhone 18 delay becomes confirmed and dampens tech sector outlook. Monitor relevant equities, USD strength, and on‑chain flows for immediate signals.