Aptos Falls After 11.3M Token Unlock Sparks Heavy Selling
Aptos (APT) moved from a brief breakout toward $1.90 into a sharp reversal as institutional participants redistributed positions ahead of a scheduled token unlock. Volume surged — reported between ~30–38% above the 30‑day average — with an exceptional peak trade of roughly 6.8M APT at resistance, indicating distribution near $1.90. The unlock will release about 11.3 million APT (~1.5% of supply) to core contributors and early investors on Dec. 12, intensifying selling pressure. Technicals shifted from bullish support near $1.74–$1.81 (earlier view) to a near‑term bearish structure after the rejection at $1.90: lower highs/lower lows, primary support around $1.69–$1.70, and resistance near $1.90–$1.91. Short‑term trader considerations: elevated volume and the concentrated peak trade suggest institutional distribution; a break below $1.69 could accelerate losses, while reclaiming above ~$1.71–$1.74 would be needed to resume upside. Suggested risk controls include tight stops below established support levels and monitoring the unlocked supply flows and on‑chain addresses receiving the tokens.
Bearish
The combined reports point to net bearish pressure on APT. High volume spikes at the session high and evidence of institutional redistribution indicate distribution rather than accumulation. The scheduled unlock of ~11.3M APT (~1.5% of supply) increases immediate sell-side liquidity, raising the probability of downward pressure around the unlock date. Technical structure shifted from an ascending channel/support near $1.74–$1.81 to lower highs and lower lows after rejection at ~$1.90, with primary near‑term support around $1.69. Short‑term impact: elevated likelihood of further downside or volatile chop if buyers fail to reclaim $1.71–$1.74; traders should expect increased supply and possible stop runs. Longer term: if unlocked tokens are absorbed by markets or long‑term holders, bearish pressure may fade, but persistent selling by recipients or weak demand would keep pressure on price. Overall, immediate-to-short‑term bias is bearish until clear reclaim of key resistance with sustained lower volume on rallies and reduction in unlocked-token selling is observed.