Aptos (APT) nears $1 as $12.7M token unlock raises sell-pressure
Aptos (APT) has slid sharply—about 39% over 30 days and roughly 67% from its November peak—and is trading near the $1 support zone. A scheduled token unlock on 10 February will release roughly $12.7 million of APT (≈11.3 million APT; ~1.13% of total supply and ~1.48% of circulating supply), with over half allocated to community members and early investors. Trading volumes spiked ahead of the unlock (38% above the 30-day average) and an exceptional session peak (6.81M APT) indicated distribution at resistance near $1.90. Technicals show a near-term bearish structure—lower highs and lower lows after a rejection near $1.90—with primary support at $1.69–$1.70 and major resistance around $1.91; failure below $1.69 could prompt a larger decline while a move above $1.71 would be needed to challenge session highs. On-chain metrics are mixed: TVL in the Aptos ecosystem rose by about $14.0 million recently, signaling some committed capital, but exchange flows show weekly net withdrawals (~$2.03M) alongside recent daily inflows (~$536K), indicating intermittent selling. Net unlocked supply and recipient selling likely increase short-term bearish pressure, though oversold RSI and improving MACD could allow selective, short-lived rebounds. Traders should anticipate elevated volatility around the unlock, manage position sizing and stop levels near the $1 and $1.69 supports, and watch exchange flows and volume spikes for signs of distribution or renewed accumulation.
Bearish
The combined reports point to a short-term bearish outlook for APT. The imminent unlock (≈11.3M APT / ~$12.7M) increases circulating supply and historically tends to produce recipient selling. Pre-unlock volume spikes—38% above the 30-day average and a 6.81M APT distribution peak at resistance—show institutional repositioning and distribution. Technical structure is weak (lower highs/lows, rejection near $1.90) with key support at $1.69–$1.70; a break below this zone could accelerate selling and new lows. Mixed on-chain signals (TVL gains vs. recent daily exchange inflows) suggest selective accumulation but not enough to offset selling pressure from the unlock. While RSI is oversold and MACD hints at easing momentum, these primarily support potential short-lived bounces rather than a sustained reversal. Traders should expect elevated volatility, prioritize risk management around the $1 and $1.69 supports, and watch exchange flows and volume for confirmation of distribution or absorption.