Aptos Posts Short-Term Bounce but Long-Term Downtrend Persists
Aptos (APT) has posted a short-term rebound — roughly +1.3% in 24 hours and about +15.8% over the week — yet remains inside a longer-term downtrend. Price is testing resistance around $1.70–$1.72 after an October sell-off that broke prior support near $4.32. Technicals are mixed: RSI has recovered from oversold levels, signaling temporary buying interest, while On‑Balance Volume (OBV) sits near multi-year lows, indicating persistent selling pressure. APT’s price remains closely correlated with Bitcoin (BTC); BTC’s recent ~1.5% rise toward $90k provided altcoin relief, and an upcoming BTC options expiry could increase short-term volatility and possibly lift APT toward $1.90–$2.00 if a broader rally occurs. On-chain and fundamental signals are weak — declining transaction and developer activity and capital flow favoring Solana (SOL) memecoin action — so any durable reversal would require both technical breakout above $1.70 and improving fundamentals. Short-term trading band: $1.56 support and $1.69–$1.72 resistance. Traders should treat the current move as a relief rally: consider range trades (buy near support, short near resistance), manage risk with tight stop-losses, monitor BTC direction, OBV and RSI for conviction, and wait for confirmed breakout (targets $1.90–$2.00) or breakdown below $1.56 for continuation of the bear trend.
Neutral
The combined reporting points to a short-term relief rally for APT but preserves a predominantly bearish longer-term structure. Bullish signals: a weekly rebound, RSI recovery, and possible lift from Bitcoin-led market moves (including an upcoming BTC options expiry that could spark volatility). Bearish signals: OBV at multi-year lows indicating continued distribution, broken higher support after October, weakening on-chain fundamentals (declining transactions and developer activity), and capital rotation to Solana memecoin flows. For traders, the immediate implication is higher short-term tradeability within a defined $1.56–$1.70 range and a tactical opportunity on a confirmed breakout toward $1.90–$2.00. However, without confirmation of sustained volume and improving fundamentals, the probability of a durable bullish reversal is low, so risk-managed, short-term strategies (range trading, event-driven plays tied to BTC moves, tight stops) are recommended. Thus the net price impact on APT is neutral: possible short-lived upside but no clear long-term bullish confirmation.