ARB Technical Outlook — Strong Downtrend; Key Supports $0.1088 & $0.0944
ARB (ARB/USDT) remains in a pronounced downtrend as of Feb 10, 2026, trading near $0.11 after a roughly 6% 24h decline. Momentum is decisively bearish: RSI in the mid-20s (oversold), MACD negative, and price below EMA20/50/200. Recent volume (~$96M 24h) confirms selling pressure. Key supports: $0.1088 (near-term swing low / 0.618 Fib) and $0.0944 (lower channel boundary / weekly support). Immediate resistance cluster sits at $0.1178 (EMA20 intersection) and $0.15 (Supertrend / higher resistance). Correlation with Bitcoin is high (≈0.8–0.85); further BTC weakness — watch $68.3k and $62.9k — raises downside risk for ARB. Probabilities estimated from technicals: ~60% continuation lower, ~25% short-term bounce to $0.1178, ~15% sustained reversal. Trade guidance for traders: maintain a short bias or stay sidelined; avoid fresh longs unless ARB breaks above $0.1178 with convincing volume and RSI divergence. Suggested risk controls: stop-loss considerations below $0.1088 and small position sizing (1–2%). This view synthesizes earlier analysis (lower highs/lows, EMA20 resistance) with updated volume and probability estimates; it is informational and not investment advice.
Bearish
Both summaries consistently report a clear bearish structure for ARB: lower highs and lower lows, price below key EMAs, negative momentum indicators (RSI, MACD), and confirming selling volume. The later update adds precise probability estimates (~60% continuation) and refined support/resistance levels ($0.1088 and $0.0944; resistance $0.1178 and $0.15). High correlation with Bitcoin (≈0.8–0.85) increases downside sensitivity to BTC moves, so macro/bitcoin weakness materially raises the likelihood of further declines. Short-term bounces are possible due to oversold readings, but lack of volume would make any reversal unlikely. For traders, this implies higher probability of continued downside in the near term — strategies should favour shorts, protective stops, small position sizes, or waiting for a confirmed breakout above $0.1178 with volume and RSI divergence before taking long exposure. Over the medium term, if ARB fails to hold $0.1088 and BTC remains weak, technical structure would indicate further targets toward the lower channel / weekly support near $0.0944 (and worse in aggressive scenarios). Conversely, a decisive break above EMA20/0.1178 with convincing volume would invalidate the bearish structure and shift the outlook bullish.