Arbitrum drew largest 2025 inflows while ARB price stalls near $0.19 — outlook for 2026
Arbitrum led Layer‑2 networks in net capital inflows during 2025 as investors rotated into scalable Layer‑2 infrastructure. On‑chain metrics strengthened through the year: TVL approached $20 billion, October revenue was about $4.5 million, and cumulative Arbitrum Timeboost fees exceeded $6 million. Transaction counts ranked Arbitrum among the top Layer‑2s (second to Base), with activity described as organic rather than incentive‑driven. Tokenized stocks trading via Robinhood topped $50 million in volume, indicating emerging real‑world use cases and early institutional participation in Timeboost auctions. Despite improving fundamentals, ARB’s price has compressed into a long‑term falling wedge near $0.19, with neutral RSI and muted MACD — signalling price compression rather than a decisive breakout or breakdown. For traders: monitor TVL and revenue trends, Timeboost auction participation and fee growth, and whether on‑chain inflows translate into active demand for ARB. Short term outlook is muted/rangebound until a momentum catalyst (protocol upgrades, broader market rally, or new institutional flows) appears; sustained capital inflows and growing usage support a constructive medium‑to‑long‑term case for ARB.
Neutral
The combined reporting shows strong on‑chain fundamentals for Arbitrum — highest net 2025 inflows among major chains, TVL near $20B, steady protocol revenue, significant Timeboost fees and organic transaction activity — which underpin a constructive medium‑to‑long‑term outlook for ARB. However, price action is compressed in a long‑term falling wedge near $0.19 with neutral RSI and muted MACD, reflecting limited short‑term momentum. For traders this implies a neutral near‑term stance: positive fundamental catalysts could trigger a bullish breakout, but absent those catalysts price is likely to remain rangebound. Key market signals to watch are continued capital inflows, rising TVL/revenue, Timeboost auction participation turning into token demand, or a broader crypto market rally. Conversely, failure to convert on‑chain growth into active ARB buying or a deterioration in risk appetite would cap upside and could lead to weakness. Thus the immediate price impact is uncertain, meriting careful monitoring rather than an outright bullish or bearish position.