Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin at $250,000 by End‑2025, Citing Liquidity Turn and End of QT
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes reiterated a bullish forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, arguing for roughly a 170% rally from current levels. Speaking on the Milk Road Show, Hayes said BTC likely found a near-term bottom after a dip to about $80.6k and a rebound to ~92.5k, attributing the washout to reduced leverage following an Oct. 10 liquidation event. He highlighted institutional ETF flows—particularly around BlackRock’s IBIT—and basis trades where institutions used ETF holdings to borrow and short BTC futures on CME before unwinding as funding rates fell. Hayes expects a supportive macro backdrop from US dollar liquidity bottoming, the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening (QT), and anticipated Fed rate cuts; he views the prior all-time high (~$126,220) as a probable milestone en route to $250k. He cautioned that forecasts can be wrong, emphasised risk management and confirmation signals, and said he remains long. The report also noted near-term technical levels (resistance ~$92.9k, support ~$90.4k) and supplementary market signals (BTC dominance, market cap, Fear & Greed index), plus related market items: on-chain whale accumulation of ENA, US bank stablecoin testing on Stellar, and an Ethereum DEX shutdown with user funds reportedly safe. This development is relevant to traders because it ties large price targets to macro liquidity dynamics, ETF/institutional positioning and deleveraging — factors that can drive volatility and directional flows in BTC. Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price target, liquidity, quantitative tightening, ETF flows, institutional basis trades.
Bullish
Hayes’ projection and rationale are fundamentally bullish for BTC. He connects a large upside target ($250k) to macro factors — US dollar liquidity bottoming, the end of QT and eventual Fed rate cuts — and to institutional mechanics around ETF basis trades and deleveraging. For traders this implies: (1) potential sustained directional flows into spot/ETF products as liquidity conditions improve, supporting a medium-to-long-term uptrend; (2) short-term volatility tied to ETF/institutional position unwinds and funding-rate dynamics, creating trading opportunities and liquidation risk; (3) critical technical milestones (prior ATH near $126k, near-term resistance ~$92.9k and support ~$90.4k) that traders should watch for confirmation. Overall, the news increases bullish conviction but also signals elevated event-driven volatility; prudent traders should use risk management, monitor ETF flows, funding rates, dollar liquidity indicators and on-chain metrics to time entries and size positions. The combination of macro tailwinds and institutional positioning favors upside over months, while short-term moves may be choppy as leverage and flows adjust.