Arthur Hayes don confirm $250K Bitcoin target for 2025, say $80.6K na di cycle bottom
Arthur Hayes, one of di co‑founders of BitMEX, yarn say im still bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) and dem dey target $250,000 by December 31, 2025. E talk say di recent drop to $80,600 be di cycle bottom. Hayes blame di drawdown mainly on ETF basis trades — big holders wey dey buy spot Bitcoin ETFs and at di same time short CME futures — and how dem unwind when funding rates collapse after October 10, wey make ETF selling worse. E also point out near $1 trillion liquidity drain from US Treasury issuance (Treasury General Account refill between July and November) together with Federal Reserve quantitative tightening (QT) as big reasons why dollar liquidity tighten. With Treasury General Account near $900 billion and Fed wey don pause QT, Hayes expect say dollar liquidity go stabilize then expand, supporting risk assets including BTC. E still expect more bank lending in 2026 to boost credit creation and dollar liquidity, wey go strengthen im bull case. Traders suppose dey watch Fed communication and QT timeline, funding rates, ETF basis activity and spot/derivatives flows, because these indicators go show if downside pressure don ease and signal best entry or risk management adjustments.
Bullish
Di kombin report dey frame clear bullish case for BTC price appreciation. Hayes identify specific, observable drivers: (1) $80.6K cycle low form after ETF basis‑trade unwind plus 12% rebound, wey suggest say immediate downside don likely reduce; (2) serious dollar liquidity inflection — driven by Treasury General Account refill and Fed pause for QT — wey suppose restore liquidity to risk markets; and (3) normalization of funding rates and institutional position resets wey reduce asymmetric downside risk from concentrated ETF selling. For traders, dis mean reduced near‑term tail risk and macro backdrop fit support sustained upward pressure: improved liquidity and renewed credit creation (expected into 2026) be long‑term bullish factors, while ETF basis dynamics and funding rate trends be near‑term confirmation signals. Short term, price fit still sensitive to Fed communications, QT developments, funding rate moves and any re‑emergence of ETF selling; these be execution cues for entry, scaling, or hedging. Over medium to long term, if liquidity metrics and ETF basis unwind behave like Hayes expect, probability of significant upside go increase, validating $250K target as high‑conviction but time‑dependent scenario. Traders make sure to manage position sizing and stops because volatility risk and the nonlinearity of ETF/derivatives flows.