Arthur Hayes: Altcoin Season Never Ended — Focus on New DeFi Winners
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says ‘altcoin season’ has not ended but evolved: gains are now concentrated in selective, narrative-driven small- and mid-cap tokens rather than broad market rotations. Citing Hyperliquid’s HYPE surge (from under $5 to about $58 in 2025) and Solana’s rebound toward $300, Hayes argues traders should stop relying on historical BTC→ETH→alt rotations and instead screen for projects with real on-chain activity and fresh narratives. He flagged privacy-focused chains as potential opportunities amid regulatory pressure. Hayes remains broadly bullish, pointing to Fed liquidity and reserve-management buys as tailwinds that could lift crypto — he even reiterated a multi-year Bitcoin upside scenario. Counterviews persist: some analysts expect legacy alts to benefit if ETF inflows arrive or foresee a BTC-to-ETH rotation before a wider altcoin run. On-chain data show mixed consolidation: several altcoins have posted strong selective rallies while many others remain fragmented. For traders: favor selective, narrative-led positions in active DeFi projects and monitor on-chain demand and liquidity conditions rather than relying on past-cycle assumptions.
Bullish
The combined reporting frames a constructive short-to-medium-term outlook for selective altcoins and new DeFi projects. Hayes’ core message is that targeted, narrative-driven tokens with demonstrable on-chain activity are likely to continue producing outsized returns even without a broad altcoin rotation. That view supports bullish positions in highlighted tokens and similar small-/mid-cap projects when liquidity improves or narratives gain traction. In the short term, expect higher volatility and idiosyncratic rallies rather than market-wide moves — trading opportunities will be event- and news-driven. In the medium term, continued macro liquidity (Fed stance, reserve buys) could lift crypto prices more broadly and provide tailwinds for altcoins that show real usage. Risks that could temper gains include regulatory headwinds, failed narratives, or a renewed BTC-dominated rotation if ETF flows prioritize large-cap tokens. Overall, developments favor selective bullish exposure to active DeFi and narrative-led altcoins rather than broad passive altcoin bets.