Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin bull market started in late Feb; $90K breakout could accelerate
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin bull market truly began on Feb. 28, when the Iran–U.S. conflict escalated. He links the rally to fiat credit expansion driven by AI capital expenditure, war spending, and countries’ physical infrastructure and supply-chain security investment.
Hayes notes Bitcoin’s rebound from a roughly $60K early-year low and argues the prior $126K range top is “inevitable.” A key trigger in his thesis is a potential move above $90,000: he expects that level to act as a momentum switch, accelerating upside.
He also highlights the macro mechanism: declining trust in U.S. dollar assets may push capital toward real assets, goods reserves, and continued monetary expansion by central banks (including the Fed). Hayes raised Maelstrom’s portfolio risk exposure to the maximum in this context.
Altcoin view: aside from Hyperliquid and Zcash, his next preferred pick is NEAR. He frames NEAR’s privacy narrative and its Intent architecture as potential drivers for positive protocol cash flow.
Hayes concludes: “This is a bull market, but there will be a time to sell—just not now.”
Bullish
The article is broadly bullish because Arthur Hayes frames the Bitcoin bull market as already underway and highlights a clear upside trigger: a move above $90,000 could “accelerate” price action. His thesis rests on macro liquidity—fiat credit expansion supported by AI capex, war-related spending, and supply-chain/infrastructure investment—which historically tends to coincide with risk-on behavior and sustained crypto inflows.
In similar past cycles, BTC often reacts non-linearly when key round-number levels and prior resistance break. The $90K level functions as both a psychological and technical breakpoint; if it breaks, traders typically tighten risk controls on shorts and add to momentum longs, which can extend rallies in the short term.
Short term: expect higher volatility and momentum flows toward BTC, with secondary rotations into high-beta names (e.g., NEAR) if BTC holds above the breakout level. Hayes also signals an increase in portfolio risk exposure, which can reinforce sentiment.
Long term: the argument that central banks keep expanding and that capital may diversify away from USD assets toward real assets supports a pro-crypto narrative. However, the piece does not specify timing precision; if macro data contradicts the liquidity story, the market could see pullbacks even within a broader bull trend. Overall, the balance of signals favors bullish continuation rather than mean reversion.