Arthur Hayes Warns BTC Could Drop Below $60K as Bitcoin–Nasdaq Decouples
Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $60,000 amid a growing decoupling between BTC and the Nasdaq 100. In a detailed blog post, Hayes attributes the risk to shrinking global liquidity and a potential credit contraction that could trigger widespread selling in risk assets. Historically, BTC has tracked technology stocks during periods of ample liquidity; the current divergence signals a change in that correlation. Hayes outlines two scenarios: (1) the BTC correction is complete and the Nasdaq must fall to restore correlation, or (2) a sharp Nasdaq drop drags BTC under $60K before a Fed liquidity response sparks a rebound. He cites the 2008 Fed interventions as precedent for how aggressive liquidity injections can weaken the dollar and drive capital into assets like Bitcoin. For traders, Hayes recommends cutting excessive leverage, holding cash reserves, monitoring BTC–Nasdaq correlation metrics, and watching macro indicators for signs of credit deflation or Fed policy shifts. The analysis highlights increased institutional integration, regulatory and geopolitical factors, and the possibility that Bitcoin may act as a leading indicator in market stress. Primary keywords: Bitcoin price, BTC–Nasdaq decoupling, Arthur Hayes, Fed liquidity, credit deflation.
Bearish
The analysis signals elevated downside risk for BTC in the near term. A sustained decoupling from the Nasdaq suggests Bitcoin is no longer simply riding tech-stock momentum, and shrinking global liquidity or an unfolding credit contraction would likely prompt risk-off flows that depress crypto prices. Hayes’ second scenario—Nasdaq sell‑off dragging BTC below $60K—directly implies short-term bearish pressure. Historical precedent (e.g., 2008 liquidity crisis and 2022 risk‑off episodes) shows that credit stress and falling equities trigger synchronized declines across risk assets, including BTC. However, the warning also contains a potential medium‑term bullish offset: aggressive Fed liquidity measures can reflate risk assets and push capital into Bitcoin, producing a rebound after an initial drop. For traders, this means: (1) short‑term: reduce leverage and consider protective hedges or stop losses because correlated market stress could force rapid BTC declines; (2) tactical: watch correlation metrics, credit spreads, and Fed communications for triggers; (3) strategic: prepare liquidity to buy dips if central bank easing materializes. Overall, the immediate tone is bearish risk management, while a liquidity‑driven rally remains possible as a secondary outcome.