Bitcoin $1M by 2030; ETH Top Pick as BitMEX Closes
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 if an artificial intelligence investment bubble triggers a credit crisis, prompting governments and central banks to expand money supply. He expects support for banks, data centres and AI companies to increase dollar liquidity and benefit scarce assets. Hayes also believes rising US debt and interest costs could lead to de facto yield-curve control, although no such policy has been announced. He estimates Bitcoin’s fall to about $58,000 may have marked the current cycle low, but expects a gradual recovery rather than a vertical rally. At $1 million, Bitcoin’s market capitalisation would approach $20.1 trillion, versus about $1.55 trillion currently. 10x Research’s Markus Thielen disputes the forecast, saying it would require unprecedented capital inflows. Despite his long-term Bitcoin outlook, Hayes currently prefers Ethereum for new crypto capital. He cites ETH’s role in decentralised finance, tokenised assets and Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum, and sees a potential threefold to fivefold gain without specifying a timeframe. Hayes has become less positive on Hyperliquid’s HYPE after its valuation and market expectations rose. He also says traders should focus more on Federal Reserve and Treasury policy than on Donald Trump’s crypto comments. Separately, BitMEX is scheduled to close on 23 September 2026. Hayes said the voluntary decision was unrelated to a hack and reflected intense exchange competition and high security and operating costs. Traders should treat the Bitcoin and ETH projections as opinions, not confirmed price targets.
Bullish
The overall impact is bullish because Hayes presents strong long-term catalysts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. A potential AI-related credit crisis, monetary expansion and higher dollar liquidity could support Bitcoin as a scarce asset. The estimate that approximately $58,000 may be the cycle low could also improve market sentiment, although Hayes expects a gradual recovery rather than an immediate surge. Ethereum has an additional relative-value argument: Hayes considers ETH undervalued after prolonged underperformance and expects a possible threefold to fivefold gain. In the short term, the effect may be limited or volatile. The $1 million Bitcoin forecast is highly speculative, and Thielen’s capital-flow objection could prompt traders to take profits or fade the prediction. Expectations around yield-curve control remain unconfirmed, while BitMEX’s planned closure may create limited exchange-sector uncertainty but does not directly alter Bitcoin or ETH fundamentals. HYPE could face comparatively weaker sentiment as its valuation reduces perceived upside. Overall, the news supports a bullish long-term narrative for BTC and ETH, but traders should distinguish opinion-driven momentum from confirmed policy changes and monitor liquidity, Federal Reserve signals, Treasury actions, market inflows and key support levels.