Hayes: Fed’s RMP Is ‘QE in Disguise’ — Bitcoin Could Rally to $200K
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes argues the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) act like quantitative easing by shifting fiat liquidity into longer‑dated Treasuries and repo markets. In a December 19 essay he says RMP’s purchases of short‑term T‑bills from money market funds prompt redeployment into risk assets, effectively expanding monetary conditions despite modest nominal monthly flows (~$40bn). Hayes expects near‑term choppy trading for Bitcoin in an $80,000–$100,000 range while markets debate RMP’s nature and its scheduled April 2026 expiry. If market perception shifts to treat RMP as QE, Hayes projects a swift revaluation: first clearing $124,000 and potentially rallying toward $200,000 in early‑to‑mid 2026, fueled by institutional FOMO and ETF inflows; he previously posited a longer‑term $500,000 target for year‑end 2026. He also disclosed rotating from ETH into select high‑quality DeFi names to position for improved fiat liquidity. Key takeaways for traders: monitor Fed commentary for language that frames RMP as “stealth QE,” track liquidity indicators and flows into risk assets and ETFs, expect interim range‑bound price action with conditional breakout potential if the narrative changes, and watch for policy reversal risk that would undermine the thesis.
Bullish
The news is bullish for Bitcoin because Hayes links the Fed’s RMP to effective monetary expansion, which increases fiat liquidity and risk‑asset appetite — conditions that historically support higher BTC prices. Short term, the piece implies continued range‑bound volatility ($80k–$100k) while markets debate RMP’s significance and approach its scheduled end; traders should expect choppy price action and monitor liquidity flows and Fed communications. Medium term, if market narratives shift to treat RMP as QE, institutional FOMO and ETF inflows could trigger a forceful breakout above $124k toward $200k, amplifying demand for BTC. Key risks that would negate this bullish view include an explicit Fed tightening, cessation of RMP by policymakers, or a clear policy reversal that restores restrictive liquidity conditions.