Arthur Hayes warns MON could crash 99% — highlights VC-driven token unlock risk
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes warned that newly launched layer‑1 blockchain Monad and its MON token face a severe downside risk — he estimated MON could collapse up to 99% if large vested allocations begin to sell. Hayes characterized MON as a typical high‑FDV, low‑circulating “VC coin”: Paradigm led a reported $225 million raise, Coinbase ran a public sale/airdrop, and much supply remains held by insiders and VCs, creating an illusion of liquidity. Hayes said token unlock schedules and concentrated holdings are the main near‑term price risks; large coordinated sell pressure following vesting could trigger deep dumps after the initial post‑listing pump (MON rose ~40% since listing). Monad co‑founder Keone Hon responded by pointing to technical features (MonadBFT consensus, async execution, JIT compilation, MonadDb, RaptorCast), an open‑source audited mainnet and ~170 global validators, and said the Coinbase sale broadened access. Hayes remains bullish on broader crypto narratives driven by monetary expansion and flagged privacy tech (zero‑knowledge systems and privacy coins) and a small set of layer‑1s (BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC) as likely long‑term survivors. Traders should monitor MON token unlock timelines, on‑chain flows, whale movements, circulating supply changes and market‑maker liquidity — VC‑heavy launches often produce sharp short‑term downside if large holders sell, while long‑term price depends on real adoption and sustained on‑chain activity.
Bearish
The combined reports point to a negative near‑term outlook specifically for MON. Key drivers: a large gap between FDV and circulating supply, heavy VC/insider concentration, and impending token unlock schedules increase the probability of substantial sell pressure. Historical precedents show VC‑heavy launches often pump on listing then sharply correct once vested tokens flow into markets. Hayes’ warning, plus visible fundraising and centralized holdings, raises counterparty and liquidity risks that can amplify volatility and downward moves. Short term: heightened risk of deep corrections around unlock dates — traders should expect elevated volatility, widening spreads, and potential flash dumps. Long term: price will depend on network adoption, active on‑chain metrics, decentralization of supply, and whether market makers absorb unlocked supply; absent sustained usage and distribution, MON’s valuation could remain vulnerable. Overall impact on MON is bearish; broader crypto markets are largely unaffected by this single‑token issuance except for sentiment among risk‑off traders.