ASTER Reclaims $1 but Faces Weak On‑Chain Metrics and $86M Token Unlock — 30% Rally Possible if Trendline Breaks

ASTER, the governance token of Aster DEX, has reclaimed the $1 level and is consolidating after a rally that peaked near $1.40. Short-term technicals on the 4‑hour chart — including a flat price structure, supporting OBV, and early green MACD prints — suggest gradual accumulation and a possible breakout toward $1.50 (≈30%) if ASTER breaks the descending trendline and sustains higher volume. On‑chain metrics are mixed to weakening: 24‑hour trading volume rose about 10% to roughly $5.47B, outperforming rival Hyperliquid, but daily fees have dropped to about $1.18M and TVL has fallen nearly 50% from $2.48B to $1.32B (DefiLlama). A major near‑term headwind is a scheduled December token unlock releasing ~78.41M ASTER (≈$86M), roughly 3.9% of market cap, while ~55% of supply remains locked — creating potential selling pressure. Recommended trader watchlist: break above the descending trendline with sustained volume (preferably >$5B), OBV/MACD confirmation on higher timeframes, real‑time TVL and fee trends, and precise vesting/unlock timing and recipients. Technicals allow a >30% short‑term move, but the combination of weaker on‑chain health and a large token unlock makes such a rally less likely without renewed network activity or significant buying pressure. Primary keywords: ASTER, Aster DEX, token unlock, TVL, on‑chain metrics.