Bitcoin Could Drop 70% to $26K–$30K as BTC/Equities Risk Rises
Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall as much as 70% within six months, with a potential stress “bottom” at $26,000–$30,000. He links the downside to macro shock risk: if equities face a 2008-style correction, BTC may suffer an even sharper drawdown because it trades like a high-volatility risk asset.
At the time of the comments, BTC was around $63,000 and down roughly 28% YTD. Bundy’s ETF-linked positioning also matters for flows: Atlas Capital’s Nasdaq-listed ETF (USAF) currently does not hold BTC, as the firm says it is waiting for the correction before deciding on allocation. It also plans to tokenize the fund on public blockchain networks next month.
Longer term, Bundy is not purely bearish. He outlined scenario ranges for BTC: $150,000–$250,000 (40%, controlled expansion), $250,000–$500,000 (25%, fiscal dominance/printing), plus lower-probability outcomes tied to global conflict and deflationary recession.
For traders, the actionable takeaway is a concrete BTC downside zone ($26K–$30K) tied to equity risk, while the USAF structure suggests “wait-for-correction” behavior could affect near-term demand and volatility.
Bearish
The news is framed as a near-term downside catalyst for BTC, with a specific 6-month drawdown estimate (up to -70%) and a stress bottom of $26,000–$30,000. It also reinforces the “BTC moves with equities” narrative, implying higher correlation to equity selloffs and potential liquidation-driven volatility.
At the same time, the ETF angle is not immediately supportive: Atlas Capital’s USAF currently excludes BTC and indicates it will wait for the correction before adding exposure, which can dampen near-term demand. While Bundy’s long-term scenarios (BTC up to $150K–$500K) are constructive, the actionable near-term setup and flow timing skew bearish for BTC price stability.