AUD/JPY Holds Above 110.00: RBA-Hawk vs BoJ-Carry Boost

AUD/JPY is holding above 110.00, with bullish momentum seen as “mild” but still intact. Earlier coverage highlighted a rebound off the 110.00 area and improving momentum; the later article adds tighter near-term structure: repeated support near 109.50, RSI around 58 (bullish but not overbought), and a four-hour bullish flag pointing toward 110.50. Traders should watch AUD/JPY resistance at 111.20 (late-2024 swing high). A daily close below 109.50 would weaken the bullish setup, while a confirmed break above 111.20 may open the path toward 112.00. Fundamentals driving AUD/JPY remain centered on interest-rate differentials. The RBA is described as relatively hawkish and cautious on premature cuts, while the BoJ—despite exiting negative rates in 2024—stays the more accommodative G10 central bank. That keeps yen carry-trade appeal alive and supports AUD via higher yield versus JPY. Commodity exports (iron ore and LNG) are cited as supportive, while COT positioning suggests asset managers maintain net-long AUD futures. Key risks include iron ore price declines, an unexpected dovish turn from the RBA, and more aggressive BoJ tightening. Catalysts to monitor are RBA minutes, Japan CPI, China PMI, and volatility gauges like VIX. Overall, AUD/JPY stays cautiously optimistic as long as it holds above 110.00.