AUD/JPY don pass 111.50 — China data and yield spread dey push di bullish momentum
AUD/JPY don sharply move up after e clear break and e remain above 111.50, wey show say bullish momentum don return. Technicals dey support the breakout: price dey above the 50- and 200-day moving averages with one recent 50/200 'golden cross', RSI near 65, ADX above 25 and volume pass normal for the move. Immediate support na 111.50 (secondary support near the 50-day MA around 110.80–111.00); near-term resistance dey 112.30 and the psychological 113.00. Fundamentals still back the technicals: stronger-than-expected China data (industrial output +6.7% YoY; retail sales +5.8%) improve outlook for Australian commodity exports, while big Australia–Japan yield gap (about +350bp) and better global risk appetite favor AUD over JPY. Market positioning show say speculative net-long AUD and net-short JPY exposures dey increase, and liquidity strong pass for Asian sessions. Key risks we fit reverse the move include solid drop back below 111.50, surprise policies from RBA or BOJ, worse China property sector, weak commodity prices, geopolitical shocks, or sudden risk-off events. For traders: keep bullish bias but watch for sustained closes above 111.50 as confirmation; consider momentum entries on break above 112.30 with strict risk management and clear stop-losses around the 111.50 pivot or the 50-day MA to limit downside.
Bullish
Di report dem combine dey point to say AUD/JPY dey bullish. Short-term momentum strong: confirmed breakout pass 111.50 with rising volume, 50/200-day golden cross, RSI and ADX show say trend strong, and next resistance band clear around 112.30–113.00. Fundamentals clear am: better-than-expected Chinese activity data go boost demand for Australian commodities, while big Australia–Japan yield gap (~350bp) and better risk appetite dey encourage carry and long-AUD positions. Market positioning don already tilt long AUD/short JPY, so follow-through fit happen. Short-term risks (drop back below 111.50, policy surprises, China/property weakness, commodity shocks or geopolitics) fit cause reversals, so traders suppose use tight stops. For medium term, unless macro data or central bank stance change materially, balance of forces favor more AUD strength vs JPY, so near-to-medium-term impact na bullish.