Automation Shrinks the Human-Only Economy, Urges Better Economic Prediction Data

Economist Alex Imas says automation will shrink the “human-only economy” by changing job structures, but human involvement will still matter in some sectors. Key points include: - Human value remains “intrinsic” where people enhance the product experience (e.g., hospitality and performance). - Individual economic forecasts often fail because structural change creates unexpected job creation and other knock-on effects. Imas argues aggregate prediction markets may better capture “wisdom of the crowd.” - A major data gap limits forecasting: researchers lack consumer demand elasticities and reliable tracking of job creation/destruction. - Labor share vs capital share matters for how automation reshapes distribution. Imas frames labor share as wages to workers and capital share as income to capital owners (machines/land). Labor and capital are complementary in production. - In a more automated future, some goods could approach a near-fully automated supply chain, pushing capital share close to one. For traders, the takeaway is not a direct crypto catalyst, but a macro theme: automation-driven labor-market shifts could alter consumption patterns and inflation dynamics over time. Short term, this is likely low-impact; longer term, any policy responses to automation could affect risk sentiment, rates expectations, and sector rotations that indirectly influence crypto volatility.