AVAX at $9 Pivot — Short-Term Bounce Possible, Downtrend Intact
Avalanche (AVAX) is trading near the critical $9 pivot after moving between about $8.8–$9.2 in recent updates. Volume profiles diverge across reports (roughly $184M–$254M daily), but both sources agree price remains under short- and mid-term moving averages (20-day EMA and weekly structure), and the broader trend is bearish. Technicals show near-oversold momentum (RSI mid-30s) with mixed signals: MACD histogram turning mildly bullish while Supertrend and weekly multi-timeframe indicators remain negative. Immediate support/pivot sits at $9.14–$9.25; a confirmed hold and breakout above $9.25 on rising volume could enable a short-term bounce toward $10–$13.7. Failure to hold $9.14 (or the $8.50–$8.25 cluster noted earlier) would likely accelerate downside to targets in the $7.55–$7.50 area and lower — some analysts project deeper falls toward $6.30–$4.54 in extended weakness. AVAX shows high correlation with Bitcoin (~0.85); BTC weakness and rising dominance are a headwind for a sustained altcoin rally. Trading implications: sellers remain in control unless AVAX reclaims $9.38–$9.87 EMAs with conviction. Short-term traders can seek a bounce with tight stops and volume confirmation; longer-term bulls need reclaim of higher resistances (around $10.16, $11.8 and retests toward $13.7+) and improvement in BTC’s trend before increasing exposure.
Bearish
Both updates show AVAX trading under key short-term moving averages and within a broader bearish structure despite occasional short-term bullish signals (MACD histogram, small price bounces). Immediate technicals place a clear pivot near $9.14–$9.25: holding and breaking above that zone with volume could produce a short-lived bounce toward $10–$13.7, but the prevailing bias remains downward. High correlation with Bitcoin (~0.85) means AVAX is unlikely to stage a sustained recovery while BTC is weak or losing momentum. Support clusters at $8.50–$8.25 and lower targets ($7.50, $6.30,甚至 $4.54 在极端走弱情境) are highlighted; failure of these supports would amplify selling. For traders, this translates to short-term trade opportunities on bounces but elevated downside risk overall — favor tight stops, conservative sizing, and confirmation from volume and BTC direction. Given these factors, the expected price impact for AVAX is bearish.