AVAX daily txs hit 3.5M on catalysts, but spot flows and technicals stay bearish
Avalanche (AVAX) network activity jumped to 3.5M daily transactions (2026 high, Nansen), while active addresses rose from ~100K in most of 2025 to a new 500K–700K floor. The latest on-chain surge is linked to three catalysts: Grayscale’s GAVA AVAX staking product on Nasdaq for institutional access, SEC/CFTC clarity that AVAX is a digital commodity, and Broadridge enabling on-chain proxy voting via Avalanche.
User quality also improved: Artemis shows non-Sybil users increased from ~5K to 49K over four months, while bot activity declined. However, market demand has not shifted enough to lift AVAX out of the downtrend. Spot flows remain slightly negative, with reported outflows of about $49M vs inflows of $45.9M over three days (spot netflow ~- $3.06M). Order data points to concentrated whale support around $8.9–$9.3.
Technicals remain weak for AVAX: Supertrend has been bearish for two weeks after a break below $10, and AVAX is still below key short- and long-term moving averages. Bulls likely need to hold above $10 to invalidate the recent trend failure; otherwise, AVAX may keep ranging roughly $8.4–$9.7.
Bearish
Despite bullish fundamentals (higher AVAX transactions, more active addresses, and improved non-Sybil user growth), the near-term tradability is constrained. Spot flows are still slightly negative (net outflows), and technical indicators for AVAX remain weak: Supertrend stays bearish and price is below key moving averages. This combination suggests rallies may face selling/volatility until AVAX can reclaim and hold above $10 with stronger volume; otherwise, the market is likely to keep AVAX range-bound in the $8.4–$9.7 zone.