AVAX daily transactions don hit 3.5M because of catalysts, but spot flows and technicals still dey bearish
Avalanche (AVAX) network activity climb reach 3.5M daily transactions (2026 high, Nansen), and active addresses don increase from about 100K for most of 2025 to new floor of 500K–700K. The latest on-chain surge na dem because three catalysts: Grayscale GAVA AVAX staking product list for Nasdaq to allow institutional access, SEC/CFTC give clarity say AVAX na digital commodity, and Broadridge don enable on-chain proxy voting via Avalanche.
User quality improve too: Artemis show non-Sybil users rise from ~5K to 49K over four months, and bot activity don fall. But market demand never shift enough to carry AVAX out of the downtrend. Spot flows still small negative, reported outflows about $49M vs inflows $45.9M over three days (spot netflow ~- $3.06M). Order data show concentrated whale support around $8.9–$9.3.
Technicals remain weak for AVAX: Supertrend don be bearish for two weeks after break below $10, and AVAX still under key short- and long-term moving averages. Bulls likely need hold above $10 to invalidate the recent trend failure; otherwise AVAX fit continue to range roughly $8.4–$9.7.
Bearish
Despite say bullish fundamentals (more AVAX transactions, more active addresses, and improved non-Sybil user growth), near-term tradability dey constrained. Spot flows still small negative (net outflows), and technical indicators for AVAX remain weak: Supertrend still bearish and price dey below key moving averages. Dis combination mean say rallies fit meet selling/volatility until AVAX regain and hold above $10 with stronger volume; otherwise, market likely go keep AVAX range-bound for $8.4–$9.7.