AVAX Risks 30% Slide After Failing $8.50 Support
Avalanche (AVAX) fell a further 3.75% on Feb 24, 2026, marking a second straight daily decline as trading volume rose ~18% to $265 million—a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. AVAX has repeatedly failed to reclaim a key support level at $8.50. Weekly and daily closes below $8.50 could trigger a sharp drop of roughly 30%, targeting roughly $5.69; an alternative analyst target cited is $6.55 after a bearish flag breakdown. Trend strength is confirmed by an ADX reading near 36.9. Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows concentrated liquidation interest at $8.04 (downside) and $8.59 (upside), with $2.19M in long‑leveraged and $3.46M in short‑leveraged positions—indicating traders are biased toward shorts and expecting resistance around $8.59. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if AVAX reclaims and holds above $8.50.
Bearish
Price action, volume and derivatives together point to elevated near-term downside risk for AVAX. Rising volume on declines indicates conviction behind selling. ADX (~36.9) confirms a strong trend, while CoinGlass liquidation maps show concentrated positioning around $8.04 (downside) and $8.59 (upside) and larger notional exposure to short‑leveraged positions ($3.46M vs $2.19M long). Technical setup—failure to hold the $8.50 support and a reported bearish flag breakdown—creates a path for a steep retracement toward $6.55–$5.69 if weekly/day closes stay below $8.50. Historically, when mid‑cap altcoins lose a well‑tested support with confirming volume and elevated short interest, they often experience accelerated declines due to stop‑hunts and forced liquidations (examples: multiple altcoin drops in 2021–2022 after support breaks). Short term: heightened volatility, higher probability of downside squeezes around liquidation clusters. Traders should expect further selling pressure until AVAX convincingly reclaims $8.50; risk management (smaller position size, tight stops or hedges) is advisable. Long term: fundamental recovery would depend on network developments and broader crypto market sentiment; a technical breakdown alone does not imply permanent loss of value but raises probability of extended consolidation at lower levels.