Avalanche (AVAX) Falls 3% as Bitcoin Drops Below $77K and DeFi Sells

Avalanche (AVAX) dropped about 3% on the day, slipping from $9.46 to around $9.18, with market cap near $3.96B. The move tracks Bitcoin’s weakness after BTC fell below $77,000 amid leveraged derivatives stress. Crypto liquidation rose to about $429.10M, including $284.87M long liquidations and $144.23M short liquidations, reinforcing a broader risk-off mood across altcoins. Trading data shows AVAX at roughly $9.17 (about -2.87% over 24h) and daily volume near $217.23M (+51%), suggesting sellers exiting with stronger conviction. On the technical side, AVAX’s 14-day RSI is near 36, pointing to a neutral-to-weakly bearish setup. The 50-day moving average sits around $9.42, while shorter-term averages near $9.35 act as resistance. A key psychological support is around $9.0. A break below could open a move toward $8.50, but the article notes AVAX’s short-term outlook depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above ~$76,500. DeFi fundamentals appear steadier: DeFiLlama reports total value locked around $656.65M (+1.69% daily). The news also highlights potential upside catalysts, including Bitwise launching an Avalanche ETF (BAVA) on NYSE with plans to stake, and AVAX-related firm AVAX One reporting Q1 revenue up to $2.4M. However, the current driver for traders is still the BTC-led derivatives flush and DeFi risk repricing.
Bearish
偏空主要来自“BTC下破关键区间→衍生品清算放大→山寨跟跌”的传导链条。文章提到BTC跌破7.7万美元后,清算总额约4.29亿美元,且多单为主,这通常会在短期内推高市场波动并压制反弹,导致AVAX等高相关资产承压。历史上类似的杠杆清算往往会先带来1-3个交易日的情绪冷却和流动性收缩,短线更容易出现“反抽失败后再探支撑”。 交易上,AVAX的关键观察点是9.0美元心理支撑以及$8.50的下一档目标;同时其短期趋势与BTC能否守住约7.65万美元强相关。若BTC在风险规避情绪下继续走弱,AVAX突破9.0美元向下的概率会增加,形成顺势交易的触发。 不过从中长期看,文章指出DeFi TVL小幅回升(约+1.69%)以及Avalanche ETF(BAVA)与企业/机构合作等潜在利好,意味着若BTC止跌并恢复风险偏好,AVAX存在技术反弹与估值再定价的空间。因此整体更可能表现为:短期偏空、等待BTC止跌后的区间震荡或反弹窗口。