Barclays Sees Three Fed Rate Cuts in 2024, Two in 2026
Barclays has revised its interest rate outlook, forecasting three Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024 after weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data. The bank now expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement the first cut in late 2024, with two additional cuts before year-end. Looking further ahead, Barclays predicts two more Fed rate cuts in March and June 2026. The adjustment reflects growing concerns over slowing job growth and aims to support economic activity amid cooling inflation. Traders should monitor FOMC meeting minutes and upcoming labor reports to gauge timing and market reaction to these anticipated Fed rate cuts.
Bullish
Falling interest rates generally support higher risk asset prices by lowering borrowing costs and boosting liquidity. Barclays’ forecast of five Fed rate cuts between 2024 and 2026 aligns with a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy that tends to drive capital into cryptocurrencies. Historically, major Fed easing cycles—such as in 2020—preceded significant crypto rallies as investors sought higher yields. In the short term, traders may see upward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins around FOMC announcements and related data releases. Over the long term, sustained Fed rate cuts could underpin broader market gains, although the timing and magnitude will depend on inflation trends and labor market developments.