Barclays Forecasts Two 25-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hikes in 2026
Barclays now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both September and December 2026. The bank previously forecast no change in rates. The revised outlook signals a more hawkish view of US monetary policy and could affect Treasury yields, the US dollar, risk sentiment and cryptocurrency markets. Traders may reassess expectations for liquidity and interest-rate cuts as the two projected Federal Reserve rate hikes approach.
Neutral
The expected market impact is neutral because Barclays’ forecast is not an official Federal Reserve decision, and the projected rate hikes may already be reflected in asset prices. However, the revision from no rate changes to two 25-basis-point hikes introduces a more hawkish risk for crypto traders. If markets begin pricing higher-for-longer rates, Treasury yields and the US dollar could rise, potentially pressuring Bitcoin and other risk assets in the short term. Similar hawkish repricing episodes have often triggered volatility and declines in leveraged crypto positions, particularly when liquidity expectations deteriorate. Conversely, the forecast could have limited impact if upcoming inflation, employment and Federal Reserve communications do not support additional tightening. In the longer term, the key drivers will be actual policy decisions, real yields, dollar strength, institutional crypto flows and broader risk appetite. Traders should monitor Fed speeches, inflation data, payrolls and rate-futures pricing rather than treat the Barclays forecast as a confirmed policy signal.