BCH Rally Tests $500: On-chain Use and Futures Bulls vs Falling Hashrate
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) surged as much as 20% over the past day, reaching an intraday high near $544 after rising on-chain activity and bullish futures positioning. Weekly on-chain metrics show transactions rose from 9,769 to 14,240 between Feb 1–17, and 24‑hour average transaction value was about $8,411. Total value transferred in 24 hours reached $119.76 million (≈1.16% of market cap), suggesting notable large-holder activity. Derivatives data indicate a strong long bias: the OI-weighted funding rate turned positive and short liquidations (~$1.5M) far outpaced long liquidations (~$102k), reinforcing upside pressure. Offsetting risks include a declining BCH hashrate — which can weaken PoW security if sustained — and increased spot selling (~$1.1M in the last day), which could cap gains. Traders should watch whether BCH can hold above $500: positive on-chain flows and futures skew support further upside in the short term, but falling hashrate and spot sell pressure present medium-term risk. Key actionable points for traders: monitor OI-weighted funding and liquidation pulses, track hashrate trends for network risk, and watch spot sell volumes and price support around $500.
Bullish
Net indicators in the article point to a bullish near-term outlook. Strong on-chain usage (transaction count and transfer value) and a clear long bias in the futures market (positive OI-weighted funding rate and far larger short liquidations) increase the probability of continued upside and momentum. Historically, similar setups — rising on-chain activity plus derivative long skew — have preceded short-term price extensions as leveraged shorts are squeezed and fresh buyers enter. However, material risks temper the positive view: a falling hashrate can undermine network security and confidence if it persists, and growing spot sell volumes could cap gains. For traders this implies a bullish trading bias in the short term but with risk management: use stops under key supports (notably $500), monitor hashrate and spot selling for shifts in fundamental risk, and watch funding rates/OI and liquidation clusters for signs of squeeze exhaustion or a rapid reversal. Over the long term, sustained hashrate decline or persistent spot selling would shift the outlook neutral to bearish, while continued on-chain growth and stable/increasing hashrate would reinforce a lasting bullish case.