Traders Bearish on August BTC, ETH Amid Institutional Buys and Retail Lags
Traders are turning bearish on August Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price targets as institutional investors continue accumulating while retail participation lags. Bitcoin is down 1.1% on the day at around $116,263, and Ethereum has fallen 3.8% to about $4,322, although both remain higher on the week. Polymarket odds show a 34% probability Bitcoin closes below $111,000 and a 43% chance Ethereum settles near $4,800 by month-end. Institutional conviction remains strong with Strategy Inc. adding 430 BTC and VanEck reiterating a $180,000 year-end target, but retail follow-through has been muted, capping momentum in tokens like XRP and DOGE. Derivatives data reveal negative perpetual funding rates and put-skewed options, signaling tactical caution ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Solana (SOL) bucks the trend, supported by robust USDC transfer activity. With broader crypto search interest at a four-year high and regulatory developments such as the GENIUS Act pending, the market’s structure is stable at the top but defensively positioned in the short term. Traders should watch Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks and retail flows for potential catalysts.
Bearish
The bearish classification reflects multiple market signals pointing to limited upside in the near term. Prediction markets now favour lower August closing prices for BTC and ETH, while perpetual funding rates have turned negative and options skews prefer puts, indicating professional traders are hedging or betting on declines. Despite strong institutional conviction—evidenced by large BTC purchases and bullish year-end targets—retail follow-through remains muted, damping broad market momentum. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium adds tactical caution, as traders await Fed Chair Powell’s commentary on policy direction. This mirrors past episodes where institutional accumulation without retail support preceded price pullbacks. In the short term, risk sentiment suggests limited rallies and higher volatility; longer term, continued institutional adoption could stabilize prices if retail re-engages.