Bearish Bitcoin Options Ahead of $4.5B Friday Expiry
Bitcoin options markets are tilting bearish as more than $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, coinciding with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. Bitcoin options account for $3.28 billion of the total, with a put-call ratio of 1.38, clustering around $105,000–$110,000 strikes and a max pain price at $112,000. Ether options comprise $1.27 billion, with calls building above $4,500 and a max pain level at $4,400. Funding rates and perpetual futures open interest have cooled to annualized rates around 4%–6% and just over 720,000 BTC-denominated contracts, respectively. These metrics, together with declining net asset value multiples for treasury firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and MetaPlanet, underscore the bearish bitcoin options sentiment ahead of critical economic data.
Bearish
The heavy skew toward puts in bitcoin options—reflected by a 1.38 put-call ratio and strike clusters at $105k–$110k—indicates market participants are securing downside protection ahead of Friday’s expiry. Funding rates have fallen to 4%–6%, and perpetual futures open interest is declining, signaling a retreat from leveraged long positions. In past cycles, such as the June 2025 expiry, a similar build-up of put interest preceded a 5% price drop. In the short term, traders should brace for increased volatility and potential tests of lower support levels as speculative longs unwind. Over the longer term, persistent caution may restrain bitcoin’s upside until new bullish catalysts—such as stronger macroeconomic indicators or on-chain growth—emerge, reinforcing a bearish sentiment.