Ethereum forms bullish falling-wedge ahead of Fusaka upgrade; ETH tests $3,000 support
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,000 after falling roughly 40% from its 2025 high as markets position ahead of the Fusaka network upgrade slated for December 3. Fusaka introduces Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), verkle trees, predictable blob fees and history-expiry tweaks — changes designed to cut bandwidth/storage needs, boost rollup throughput, and lower layer-2 posting costs. On-chain and market participants (notably Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion) have shown accumulation ahead of activation, but major upgrades are often priced in before launch.
Technically, ETH remains below the 50- and 100-day moving averages with a bearish Supertrend, yet price has formed a large falling-wedge (a bullish reversal pattern). MACD has produced a bullish crossover and RSI is recovering toward neutral. Key trading levels: support near $2,635 (a break would invalidate the bullish case) and resistance around $3,500, with an intermediate test of the 78.6% Fib / near-term resistance roughly $2,963–$2,979. Short-term traders can trade the oversold bounce with tight risk management; a sustained rally likely requires ETH to reclaim key moving averages, confirm a falling-wedge breakout, and for sentiment to price Fusaka’s long-term throughput and cost benefits. Macro and liquidity risks, plus traders waiting for technical confirmation, could limit upside despite protocol improvements.
Neutral
The net impact on ETH is neutral-positive but conditional. Fusaka introduces meaningful protocol improvements (PeerDAS, verkle trees, predictable blob fees) that should materially reduce bandwidth/storage and lower L2 posting costs, supporting Ethereum’s role as a settlement layer — a medium-to-long-term bullish factor. However, the market has already priced some upgrade expectations and macro/liquidity risks remain. Technically, mixed signals prevail: a bullish falling-wedge and MACD crossover indicate potential for a short-term rebound, but ETH trading below key moving averages and a bearish Supertrend cap conviction. Short-term traders can exploit an oversold bounce with tight stops; a sustained bullish re-rating requires a confirmed wedge breakout, reclaiming the 50/100-day averages, and clear on-chain flows that validate Fusaka’s benefits. Conversely, a break below $2,635/$2,681 levels would likely trigger renewed selling and invalidate the bullish case. Therefore, immediate price direction is uncertain and depends on technical confirmation and evolving sentiment rather than the protocol changes alone.