Benchmark lifts Galaxy Digital to Buy — 170% upside cited on AI data center and US crypto legislation
Benchmark Research maintains a ’Buy’ rating on Galaxy Digital and sets a $57 price target (about 170% upside from current ~$21). The analyst note argues the market has overreacted to Galaxy’s Q4 loss of $482 million and is underestimating longer-term catalysts: the Helios AI/data center in Texas (1.6+ GW approved power capacity) and the prospect of U.S. crypto market-structure legislation, which Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz estimated has a 75–80% chance of passing. Helios has a lease agreement with AI cloud provider CoreWeave expected to start generating revenue this year; Benchmark says Helios alone could be worth more than Galaxy’s current market cap. Galaxy’s lending business continues to expand (total loans ≈ $1.8B) and the firm holds about $2.6B in cash and stablecoins, supporting further infrastructure and institutional partnerships planned for coming quarters. Benchmark’s bullish view rests on AI-data-center monetization, potential inflows from clearer U.S. regulation, and ongoing growth in institutional services.
Bullish
Benchmark’s report presents clear fundamental upside drivers for Galaxy Digital that are relevant to crypto markets: (1) a high-value, revenue-generating AI/data-center asset (Helios) with contractual demand (CoreWeave) that could materially re-rate enterprise value; (2) a credible probability of U.S. crypto market-structure legislation that would likely unlock institutional capital flows; and (3) a growing lending book and liquid reserves (~$2.6B) to fund expansion. For traders, these factors imply potential positive repricing of Galaxy equity and improved sentiment for crypto equities and infrastructure names. Short-term volatility may persist due to recent large Q4 loss and continuing macro/crypto market trends, so catalysts to watch are Helios commercialization news, updates on U.S. legislation, institutional partnership announcements, and quarterly loan/treasury updates. Historically, similar narratives (asset revaluation + regulatory clarity) have produced sustained rallies in crypto-service and infrastructure stocks rather than immediate moves in spot crypto prices; expect correlated bullishness in crypto equities and selective altcoins tied to institutional adoption. Risk: execution delays at Helios, regulatory setbacks, or broader risk-off could negate the bullish thesis.