Bernstein Says Bitcoin Is Bottomed, Reaffirms $150K Target
Bernstein said Bitcoin has “bottomed” after a roughly 45% drawdown, framing the move as a sentiment reset rather than a fundamentals breakdown. The firm pointed to leverage unwind, profit-taking by long-term holders, and forced liquidations that amplified volatility, arguing there is “no systemic pressure” like in prior bear phases.
For traders, Bernstein kept its year-end Bitcoin target at $150,000 and highlighted potential near-term catalysts: improving institutional support via Bitcoin ETF flows and stronger crypto treasury/financing dynamics. It also noted relative strength—since late February’s Iran conflict escalation, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by about 25%, reinforcing its “portable, censorship-resistant” narrative.
Bernstein also reiterated its bullish stance on Strategy (MSTR), viewing it as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin with an Outperform rating and a $450 price target. It flagged rising demand for Strategy’s preferred-share tool STRC, marketed as lower-volatility and “perpetual,” with an 11.5% monthly dividend; STRC trading volumes were reported up 65% over three months.
Bottom line: the thesis is that Bitcoin’s downside pressure has already been absorbed, so traders should watch ETF flows and MSTR/STRC positioning for confirmation if volatility persists.
Bullish
Bernstein’s core message is bullish for Bitcoin: it argues the recent ~45% decline was mainly driven by leverage cleanup, profit-taking, and liquidations rather than broad “systemic pressure,” which lowers the probability of another major downside leg. The reaffirmed $150K year-end target and emphasis on supportive Bitcoin ETF flows and institutional/treasury demand suggest a higher chance that dips get absorbed.
The added MSTR/STRC angle matters for trading because these exposures can amplify beta to Bitcoin. If ETF inflows continue and Strategy-related demand (especially STRC volume growth) persists, the market could see follow-through rallies rather than continued selloff—supporting a bullish bias for price action in Bitcoin itself over both the short and medium term.