Bernstein holds $150K BTC 2026 target, calls pullback a liquidity-driven confidence crisis
Bernstein Research reiterated a $150,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price target for end-2026, describing the recent roughly 50% decline from the all-time high to the low-$60k/around $70k area as a confidence-driven, liquidity-sensitive correction rather than a structural failure. The firm noted no systemic triggers (hidden leverage or major insolvencies) and flagged only modest net outflows from spot-BTC ETFs (~7%). Bernstein warned miners could sell if price falls below production costs but said major corporate holders with long-dated preferred equity face manageable refinancing risk. The note dismissed narratives that AI or near-term quantum risks will make Bitcoin obsolete and argued institutional alignment — pro-Bitcoin U.S. policy, accelerating spot ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury exposure and asset-manager engagement — could resume upward momentum once liquidity improves. Market reactions varied: Bitwise’s CEO called sub-$70k levels a renewed institutional entry point, while some technical traders warn the “real bottom” may be under $50k. From current levels near $69k, Bernstein’s $150k target implies roughly +117% upside (about a $3 trillion market cap). Key SEO keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price, spot Bitcoin ETF, liquidity, institutional demand.
Bullish
Bernstein’s reaffirmation of a $150K 2026 target combined with its assessment that the decline is liquidity- and confidence-driven supports a bullish medium-term outlook for BTC. Key bullish factors: limited ETF net outflows (~7%) rather than systemic exodus, ongoing institutional alignment (policy environment, ETF adoption, corporate treasury exposure) and the prospect of renewed demand once liquidity conditions normalize. These elements point to significant upside if macro/liquidity conditions improve, consistent with Bernstein’s projected ~117% gain from current levels. Short-term risks remain: miner selling pressure if price breaches production-cost levels, technical traders warning of further downside and the possibility a deeper capitulation could push price below $50k. For traders, that implies: 1) short-term volatility and potential bounce/break scenarios around miner cost thresholds and ETF flows; 2) tactical opportunities for dip-buying by institutions and longer-term holders if liquidity stabilizes; and 3) risk management is essential because a liquidity-driven sell-off can deepen quickly despite sound fundamentals. Overall impact on BTC price is classified as bullish for the medium-to-long term, but neutral-to-bearish for immediate short-term price action until liquidity shows clear improvement.