Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $150,000 in 2026 as Liquidity Recovers
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, reiterated a bullish forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) could rally to $150,000 by year‑end despite recent declines to around $60,000–$70,000. They describe the current drawdown as the “weakest bear case” in Bitcoin’s history and attribute it to a “self‑imposed crisis of confidence” rather than systemic failures or a major negative catalyst. Bernstein highlighted stronger fundamentals — including growing institutional adoption via BTC ETFs and corporate buyers — and a regulatory environment they view as favourable under President Donald Trump. The note addressed quantum‑computing security concerns, saying the threat affects many industries and will be managed with quantum‑resistant standards; Michael Saylor’s Strategy is cited as preparing a Bitcoin security program. Bernstein also downplayed forced corporate liquidations, citing statements from corporate holders (e.g., Strategy) that their balance sheets can withstand the current market without large sell‑offs unless extreme, prolonged lows occur. The analysts expect Bitcoin to resume rallying as liquidity conditions ease and ETFs and corporations continue accumulation. At publication BTC traded near $69,700.
Bullish
Bernstein’s note is market‑positive for several reasons relevant to traders. First, a $150,000 target from a reputable wealth manager signals strong institutional conviction, which can attract flows and reinforce bullish sentiment. Second, their emphasis on the absence of a systemic catalyst (no exchange collapse, no major defaults) reduces tail‑risk concerns that typically trigger sustained sell‑offs. Third, the analysts point to increasing ETF and corporate accumulation — concrete demand drivers that improve the supply/demand balance and can lift price as liquidity normalizes. Comparatively, prior cycles saw sentiment turn bullish when institutional products and corporate treasuries began large‑scale accumulation (post‑2020 ETF launches and corporate buys). Short‑term impact: positive but volatile — traders may see rallies on easing liquidity and positive headlines, with pullbacks if macro liquidity or risk‑off conditions reappear. Long‑term impact: supportive — continued institutional adoption and regulated ETF inflows tend to reduce volatility over time and push fair‑value expectations higher. Risks remain: macro shocks, regulatory reversals, or unexpected large liquidations could invalidate the bullish thesis. Overall, the note increases probability of upward price pressure, but traders should manage position sizing and watch liquidity indicators (fund flows, futures basis, funding rates) for signs of real accumulation versus headline‑driven moves.